And now the game of submarine hide-and-seek may be approaching the point at which submarines can no longer elude detection and simply disappear. It may come
as early as 2050, according to a recent study by the National Security College of the Australian National University, in Canberra. This timing is particularly significant because the enormous costs required to design and build a submarine are meant to be spread out over at least 60 years. A submarine that goes into service today should still be in service in 2082. Nuclear-powered submarines, such as the Virginia-class fast-attack submarine, each cost roughly US $2.8 billion, according to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. And that’s just the purchase price; the total life cycle cost for the new Columbia-class ballistic-missile submarine is estimated to exceed $395 billion.
The twin problems of detecting submarines of rival countries and protecting one’s own submarines from detection are enormous, and the technical details are closely guarded secrets. Many naval experts are speculating about sensing technologies that could be used in concert with modern AI methodologies to neutralize a submarine’s stealth.
Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy secretary general of NATO, warns that “the stealth of submarines will be difficult to sustain, as sensing of all kinds, in multiple spectra, in and out of the water becomes more ubiquitous.” And the ongoing contest between stealth and detection is becoming increasingly volatile as these new technologies threaten to overturn the balance.
We have new ways to find submarines
Today’s sensing technologies for detecting submarines are moving beyond merely hearing submarines to pinpointing their position through a variety of non-acoustic techniques. Submarines can now be detected by the tiny amounts of radiation and chemicals they emit, by slight disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic fields, and by reflected light from laser or LED pulses. All these methods seek to detect anomalies in the natural environment, as represented in sophisticated models of baseline conditions that have been developed within the last decade, thanks in part to Moore’s Law advances in computing power.
Airborne laser-based sensors can detect submarines lurking near the surface.IEEE Spectrum
According to experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington, D.C., two methods offer
particular promise. Lidar sensors transmit laser pulses through the water to produce highly accurate 3D scans of objects. Magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) instruments monitor the Earth’s magnetic fields and can detect subtle disturbances caused by the metal hull of a submerged submarine.
Both sensors have drawbacks. MAD works only at low altitudes or underwater. It is often not sensitive enough to pick out the
disturbances caused by submarines from among the many other subtle shifts in electromagnetic fields under the ocean.
Lidar has better range and
resolution and can be installed on satellites, but it consumes a lot of power—a standard automotive unit with a range of several hundred meters can burn 25 watts. Lidar is also prohibitively expensive, especially when operated in space. In 2018, NASA launched a satellite with laser imaging technology to monitor changes in Earth’s surface—notably changes in the patterns on the ocean’s surface; the satellite cost more than $1 billion.
Indeed, where you place the sensors is crucial. Underwater sensor arrays won’t put an end to submarine stealth by themselves. Retired Rear Adm.
John Gower, former submarine commander for the Royal Navy …….